It only has even not shaped his political line

A simple absence sometimes marks the end of an era. Fidel Castro was not there Saturday, December 2 at the ceremonies for the 50th anniversary of the landing of the ship "Granma", at least symbolically, which marks the beginning of the revolution against the Batista regime. This non-apparition reinforces the questions on the estate of Lider Maximo and the future of the regime he created. Today, few observers believe that Fidel Castro, eighty years since August 13, resumed the reins of power entrusted since July 31 last to his brother Raul, who is in his early youth he was seventy-five years. And if the scheme created by Fidel can still survive some time, its duration is limited, at least in its current form, so it is closely related to the charismatic figure of Lider Maximo.

His disappearance from the political spotlight opens a new chapter in the complex face-to-face between Cuba and the United States since the end of the Spanish-American war of 1898. Washington was first seen as the protector of the independence from the Spanish ambitions, then a predator supporting the corrupt dictatorship of Batista and, finally, as the imperialist for half a century enemy. Signs of change: Raul Castro seized the opportunity of ceremonies from December 2 to remind the invitation to the United States to come to a negotiating table. Opening in Sham with conditions and the usual diatribes against Washington, which considers its side the number two of the regime as a "light Fidel" (Fidel Lite).

But Washington will have to redefine this relationship. Because the political demise of Castro is involved in a new context. Of course, the long illness of the Cuban President, who had already shown signs of physical weakness from June 2001 to collapsing during one of his endless speeches, leaves the impression that the island of the Caribbean would be entered into a period of glaciation in the Brezhnev. An impression reinforced by the fact that Cuba is remained arc-bouté on his "socialism" after the fall of the Berlin wall. Some even today speak of a "raulisation", replacing the "well-supplied" of Fidel.

More is needed however. 70 of the 11 million Cubans were born after the revolution of 1959: this simple demographic fact relegates the system of the guerrillas for the first time in a historic gerontocracy. And, as noted by the Spanish newspaper "El Mundo", the company that has emerged in the crisis of the 1990s Cuba this "special period" after the collapse of the Soviet Union is profoundly different from that of the "socialist bubble" of the previous decade. Even if Cuba remains outside the international financial system, said Daniel Erikson, of the "think tank" Interamerican Dialogue, the Cuban Government has imposed a "structural adjustment programme", including stabilization of inflation, a reduction of subsidies and military spending, and recovery of public finances. In addition, Cuba has developed new areas of activity such as tourism, biotechnology, and energy, and "without outside advice".

To redefine its relationship with Havana, Washington must however admit before a bitter observation: its embargo against Cuba, applied since the beginning of the 1960s and hardened by the successors of President John Kennedy, led nowhere. The pressure on the regime has not caused its collapse, an event which would have seemed almost logical after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It only has even not shaped his political line. Finally, noted Cuban Professor Jacobo Machover in his book "Tropical totalitarianism", the largest victory of Castro was his longevity in power. The Cuban caudillo and its successors, Raul or perhaps a "third man", as the Vice President Carlos Lage Davilla, Member of the central Committee of the Communist Party, the United States today have other cats to beat in the Middle East. Nothing to do with the years 1970-1980, where Latin was his primary concern.

Here too, the situation has changed. The arrival of the left to power in several countries of the continent, such as the Venezuela or the Bolivia, has released Cuba of its isolation. There is probably not an "axis of evil" anti-American, because the political conditions are different from one country to another. But Cuba now has friends. In an interview with the American Institute, Council on Foreign Relations, Brian Latell, former CIA analyst, noted that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has paid Cuba $ 2.5 billion of subsidies, primarily in petroleum products. In addition, the Venezuela has invested in the island. Even if the vast majority of Cubans have a "rather miserable existence", beyond food and basic health care, economic growth is again more sustained.

Will the country there tomorrow the path towards the democratization of its institutions as the former satellites of the USSR in Eastern Europe have done 15 years ago Or will it become the 51st state of the United States as some dream in Florida The "big bang" some expected as early as the end of July in Washington, at the time of the announcement of the disease and the withdrawal of the power of Fidel Castro, in any case did not place. The opposition, severely repressed in the island, and the strong community in exile in the United States are extremely fragmented. In addition, Castro was able to resume the torch of José Marti (1853-1895), martyr and apostle of the struggle for independence, to anchor a strong nationalist sentiment in the Cuban population.

Rest of course a "third way" in Chinese: economic opening and maintenance of a single party and a repressive political apparatus. But this solution would be only one time. Much also depends on the attitude of the United States. In any case, the policy towards Cuba, largely dictated by concerns of domestic policy because of the importance of the Cuban community in exile, is now in total deadlock. It must also be changed.