The staffs of all German parties have, Sunday, eyes on the polls in the three Länder which renew their regional Parliament. Saarland, Thuringia and Saxony do add them three that 7.5 million people, or less than 10 of the population of the country, but their vote could influence the course of the campaign for the legislative elections of 27 September.
So far widely in advance in national surveys on the Social Democrats (SPD), the Christian Democrats (CDU) are less good position at the regional level, particularly in the Saarland and Thuringia. The SPD set a coup de theatre to revive its candidate, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, in the race for the Chancellery. The latest available polls, coalitions of a new type could see the day following the elections on Sunday: a laboratory for the federal level.
Refreshed Liberals
It is in Saxony that polling seems to be the more predictable. There, the Christian Democrats should remain around the level of 2004 (41.1). The Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich (CDU) could have the choice between the continuation of the great current coalition with the Social Democrats or, more likely, an alliance with refreshed Liberals.
His counterpart in Thuringia is in a delicate position. Dieter Althaus, accused by his opponents to exploit the accident of skiing in which he was involved in January, and which cost the lives of a Slovak citizen, can hardly count on 35 of the votes for his party, which will therefore lose its absolute majority of seats. The radical left party Die Linke of Bodo Ramelow is an effective campaign and should arrive in the second position, at the SPD. If the Greens crossing the 5 bar that opens the doors of the Landtag, there may be a majority for a left Die Linke-SPD-Greens coalition, never before attempted. However, such an alliance could fail on a question of individual, Social Democrats and Greens reluctance so far to support Bodo Ramelow. A CDU - SPD grand coalition is therefore a likely option.
Serious negotiations to provide
Peter Müller, Saarland, is the most threatened (see below). The CDU, which only rudder in Saarbrücken for ten years, should lose more than 10 points from 2004. An alliance with the Liberals seems to not be enough. In the face, the Social Democrats should arrive at Die Linke and its star candidate, Oskar Lafontaine. The Greens could be in the position of King makers. If they are associated with the left camp, they would permit Die Linke, heir indirect Lilienthal Communists, to participate for the first time a regional government in the West of the country, causing no doubt of heated debate. Die Linke governs at the present time in the Land of Berlin, with the SPD. The Social Democrats have pledged to not to ally with the radical left, at the federal level.
In an open game, can expect frenetic negotiations between parties, in the weeks that follow the elections. For the SPD, the issue is crucial. "If we could reverse a CDU Minister-President, it would be a signal for the federal level," said Frank - Walter Steinmeier. Currently, the Chancellor Merkel seems able to form a coalition with the Liberals, although relations between the FDP and the CSU Bavarian conservatives seriously deteriorated in recent weeks.
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