A little more than a month after the referendum, French politics appears if both atomized and if shifted to the expectations of the French that no scenario is now taboo in the perspective of laprésidentielle. Imagine this atomization process to produce its effects, left to right...
On the left, the logic of Laurent Fabius is clear. He will seek to conquer the Socialist Party in November next to place his head one of his lieutenants, before preparing the appointment with the militants for the designation of the candidate to the presidential election. There is no doubt that it will be on track. There is no doubt also that there will be an alliance to prevent with possibly Lionel Jospin for the lead. In any State of issue, and while activists prefer another, Laurent Fabius could stand for election at the same time the official candidate.
Right, the determination of Nicolas Sarkozy does not doubt. But even if it appears wrong point in the polls, Jacques Chirac has never excluded to represent. It has been the experience of a first resurrection in 1995, it will attempt to force the chance once more or grow, in fine, a third man Dominique de Villepin for example in the race. In any case, it cannot therefore exclude that conservative parties have not two, but three candidates, François Bayrou will certainly be part.
These five from potential candidates of the so-called "governing" parties are added by others, not least. Starting with the 2002 finalist, Jean-Marie Le Pen, possibly followed by Philippe de Villiers. Olivier Besancenot could federate as the extreme-left while Marie-George Buffet will be the banner of the PC. Finally, do not forget the environmentalists. And this leaves us with a dozen candidates, not to mention the "small", which, if they arrive to find the necessary sponsorships could disperse a few votes.
"last but not least", a new candidate will be certainly and should harvest a significant share of the vote: it is the white newsletter, which, for the first time in the Fifth Republic, will be posted instead of to a vote void.
In such a configuration, should what percentage of votes be to reach the second round It is clear that any candidate capable of exceeding the 15 threshold has his chances. One such score is guaranteed to Nicolas Sarkozy or Jacques Chirac for simultaneous nomination; even on the left, note for duel Fabius-Jospin. Jean-Marie Le Pen is able to cross this threshold. And in the case even unlikely where the extreme-left would unite around a single spokesperson, that his name is Olivier Besancenot or... José Bové, capable of gathering the ecologists, Communists, and other peasants, hunters and fishermen, the France is no longer from a second round Le Pen-Bové!
Continue in effect the line of slope followed by the French electorate for a decade. In 1995, it sweeps to Edouard Balladur a Crown that seemed promised to deliver it to the outsider that person did, for the war against the social divide. It never took place, he invited in 2002 in the second round of the national front leader, demonstrating his confidence in the binomial of official candidates. This is a first warning, but without costs because he mathematically ensures the triumphant election of the renew. In 2005, new warning on the referendum: this time, all are parties of Government, and with them the elites relaying their analyses, which are sent to the carpet. If this trend continues and that the people's printing, once, have not been heard, it is well to the next opportunity thus the presidential election of 2007 that he wants to mark his rejection of the official candidates. And in a first round atomized, the temptation may be great to eliminate to immediately leaving resentment outweigh reason.
Then the Pen-Bové in the second round: bad politique-fiction Scenario unlikely to play to fear Perhaps. The fact is that when such an outcome no longer appears as fundamentally impossible, the sign is that of the terrible crisis in the social body and its representation policy in our country.