Or the India had come to rely on these capital

Is soufflé now falling After the years of euphoria, the India seems to cross a bad password. It which was self-proclaimed "shining India" (the India shining) had, last week denied serious of us "newsweek" magazine: "Isn't shining India" simply stated the weekly on its cover. It was already known that the country had large challenges facing: infrastructure are very largely insufficient, as well as its industrial sector fails to provide enough work to millions of arm pushed out of campaigns by the peasant misery. But three new points of fragility of the country are emerging at the big day.

The first was revealed by the crisis of the "subprime". Admittedly, the country will suffer from the slowdown of the United States, since the U.S. market provides more than half of the turnover of the high technology sector. But more serious: the real challenge is financial. As explained by Delphine Cavalier, an economist at BNP Paribas, the India part of these emerging economies that have highly benefited of financial globalization. Since 2003, capital of the world rushed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, supplying the economy of money. In the last year, more than 100 billion dollars came thus to invest in the country, most through the stock market, even if direct investment are also on the rise. The place of Bombay takes therefore head-on the return of the aversion to risk on the financial world: again suddenly hesitant investors shun the "exotic" destinations The Sensex index, which had flirted with the additional 21,000 points early in the year, fell around 13,000.

Or the India had come to rely on these capital. Because at the domestic level, access to credit has become more and more difficult. The fault to inflation, which has soared since one year, to achieve, in early August, 12,63. In a country still overwhelmingly poor, the Government constantly hammered its determination to curb the waltz of the labels, because he knows that it hits the poorest head-on. Which constitute its electoral base. Convinced also of the need to break the dreaded inflationary spiral of economists, the Central Bank is therefore to raise rates. They seem to be stabilizing. But with a steering rate to 9, and so banks lend around 14, debt has become difficult for individuals as for businesses. There is no doubt that domestic demand is going to feel. For internal and external reasons, the economy is short of cash. It may well be difficult to continue to grow as more than 9 per year today.

Unfortunately, the State cannot play the card of public expenditure to stimulate the economy. Since the rise of a barrel of oil has revealed a second point of vulnerability of the country: the Government has no budgetary room for manoeuvre. Although he long presented sustainable deficits (around), it was excluding several painful spending of its calculations. In particular, the cost of the fuel subsidy, which allows the Indians would be marginally higher crude oil, and just fly. When it returned in the budget figures everything that the Government had been careful to exclude, you discover while the budget deficit flirted with 10 of the GDP. This situation would eventually bearable to the booming economy, but the current slowdown makes it significantly more dangerous.

Finally, two recent events have highlighted a third fault in the country, societal and political one. Last Wednesday, the licensed employees of a car manufacturer have lynched to death their boss, a father of forty-seven years. Even more than the violence of the drama, it is the reaction of the Minister of labour which has devastated the Indian employers. Rather than condemn the criminal act, he found that "this should serve as a warning to the executives", and insisted on the need to address the workers "with compassion" not "push them to end". Another event that has worried the business community took place in early September, to the chagrin of Tata Motors, which dreamed with its future "nano", revolutionized the history of the automobile. Before even the plant for the production of the famous car at $ 2,500 is operational, the local peasants, skilfully driven by the local opposition party, expressed so violently against the Tata company eventually throw the sponge.

Even if they are disparate, these two events throw the same light flood on the State of Indian society and the political reality of the "great democracy of the world". In a country where 40 of the population remains illiterate, collective decision-making is an obstacle course. The race for the votes of voters often turn to populist one-upmanship, as evidenced by the words of the Minister of labour. But also for the purchase of votes, which is a common practice. "To be a policy here, should have the means", said a large Indian pattern. Must be true to the current Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, have dared to defy the opposition of its Communist allies to sign a nuclear agreement with the United States. But the suspicion on the manner in which he has managed to keep a coalition in Parliament speak volumes on political customs of the country: suitcases of banknotes have been circulated to buy the votes of some members. Nothing of very trivial in a country where, according to the same Indian company Chief, "there are 120 criminals in the central Parliament". For the latter, this is no doubt: in India, the economy forward "Despite democracy." Is radical, but it reflects a feeling quite widespread in the business community.

It would be obviously excessive to fully agree with this point of view: the slowness of the process in India, which contrasts with their speed in China, is perhaps the best guarantee that the building which constructed currently does not tomorrow collapses like a House of cards. It is not to deny the growth potential of the country: in all likelihood the India will be a major power in this century. But behind the linearity of the scenarios outlined in the NLTPS appears a much more chaotic path.