It will take years and will leave deep trace said Anton Brender

American leadership to rebuild

Weakened by the global turmoil, the United States can regain their leadership of before crisis For Economist Anton Brender, their economic dominance is actually reached. "They had to recognize that their financial self-regulation model was out of date." They have not led the manoeuvre since the beginning of the crisis, even if they still have the influence. "He must be aware of the new world reality in which"no one has really leadership ".

Michel Aglietta, specialist Professor of monetary and financial matters, is much less categorical, but he acknowledged that "Barack Obama must rethink American leadership," turn more to the same multilateralism if, in the short term necessity requires it to advocate for an increased role for the IMF.

There are few economists who believe in a release of rapid crisis, highlighting the future burden of deficits. "It will take years and will leave deep trace," said Anton Brender. "In a global crisis such as this, there is a loss of cumulative production, adds Michel Aglietta, that rather favours the hypothesis of a stabilization in early 2010.". At this time, "suggesting that if the U.S. banking rescue plan succeeds and the g-20 leads to real results in terms of financial regulation, the United States and China can then reconnect with some growth".

The two powers have two important points, he submits:

On the one hand, both have relied on ambitious stimulus plans focused on "activities for the future, less intensive carbon and energy." On the other hand, the two countries have decided to transform their health, for very different reasons, suffering from a disastrous cost-performance report in depth. Once pulled by a single dominant power, the world economy be, this time, saved by a tandem

Europe research

a model of growth

Europeans will find a little brackish scenario, they will have choice of resignation. The United States had beautiful inflict the rest world a crisis without precedent, their economy will come out earlier and stronger from the recession, economists have already predicted. The reasons for this Europeans came later in the crisis and have developed, since, less money on the table 1.7 to 3.5 of GDP, according to the selected data. "The United States are positioned to be the first to get out of the crisis, while Europeans will only be"stowaways"of American stimulus effort", explains Jacques Cailloux, Economist at RBS. The first economy of the region, the Germany, which will, to restart, that only the export engine 40 percent of GDP is bound to wait wisely resumption of global demand. The downturn coming emerging countries especially in Eastern Europe, of which the Germany is the main supplier will be an another brake on recovery. The Spain will remain permanently affected by the crisis of the real estate while the Italy will suffer, as before the crisis, its declining competitiveness. It is also anticipated that the European Central Bank and the Commission in Brussels will quickly argue the virtues of the budget balance, demanding a policy of rigour, member countries while the United States will seek rather to alleviate their debt burden out inflation without danger to the dollar which remains the main reserve currency in the world.

Has the European Union benefited of the crisis, as it is was itself invited, to reconstruct a growth potential in the sectors of the future "Enough, and even not at all, if you place at the European level", says Véronique rich-Flores, an economist at Société Générale. Unlike the American example, it did not had the political will for way coordinated crisis or to prepare for the future in new technologies.

Asia must escape

its dependence on

Western countries could not expect a rapid exit from the crisis, Asia has a chance to become the engine of global growth. At first glance, the hypothesis seems credible: area banks only invested little in the "sub-prime", not in Asia is now more than a third of global GDP, which made her a huge potential market.

However, the evolution of Asian countries in the current crisis invites caution. For all, regardless of their degree of development, took head-on the fall in consumption in the United States and Europe, revealing the fact that their economic dynamic remains, in large part, related to the developed countries. It is the case, of course, China, whose growth could fall around 6.5 this year, according to the World Bank, or a division by almost two of the speed of development of the country. In the wake of China, Southeast Asia also suffers as part of its industrial unit was repositioned in the role of supplier of the empire of the middle. It is, for example, the fate that is today the Thailand whose economy could contract 3 percent this year.

More surprising, the case of the Korea in the South and the Japan prove that, even when they become developed countries, Asian countries remain heavily dependent of the Western economy. The Korea of the South, who knew far growth between 4 and 5, saw its GDP to contract by 5.1 in the last quarter of 2008. The Japan, its trade surplus has records underperformance and causes the GDP in an abyssal fall: 12 in the last quarter of 2008!

There is no doubt that the current crisis will strongly encourage Asia leaders to activate the internal engine of their countries. The strategic shift is necessary. But must then commit to unknown lands. And in China, it will take years: the time to put in place a genuine system of social protection.