370 billion yuan 1100 billion dollars of loans

While the rest of the world remains mired in recession, China is about to succeed to generate, as the Government had hoped, an annual growth of 8 GDP. Yesterday, the authorities showed that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country had progressed in annual landslide, 7.9 in the second quarter, at a rate much higher than the 6.1 increase measured on the first three months of the year. At the announcement of these performances, all independent economists immediately revised upward their forecasts for the country to bet on 8.5 in 2009 and 10 in 2010.

To maintain activity in the country and offset the decline, in the first half of 22 of Chinese exports, the State has spent without counting. Taking advantage of the absence of competing political organizations likely to criticize the management of public funds, the Chinese Communist Party has held without denies its stimulus plan "marketé" to 4,000 billion yuan ($586 billion). Throughout the country, new building of highways, railways and public buildings are opened. According to the national Bureau of statistics figures released yesterday, the investment in fixed assets in urban areas jumped 33.6 over one year to the first half.

Associated with the movement of national mobilization, the banks have, been called upon to validate further down the line of credit to finance part of this great work but also purchases of individual apartments or the expansion of large public enterprises, which saw industrial output regroup ( 10.7 in June). On the first six months of the year, the banks of the countries have thus unblocked more than 7.370 billion yuan (1,100 billion dollars) of loans. It is two times more than the total loans validated over the whole of the year 2008.

Unbalanced aid

To help certain industrial sectors, the country has also dropped a series of taxes and even offered in several provinces, including rural, of the purchase orders to push household to household appliances or small cylinder capacity cars. All of these campaigns resulted in sustaining consumption and contributed to the increase of 15 of the sales of retail in June.

If Beijing yesterday welcomed the confirmation of the recovery in the country, managers of power kept of any triumphalism. "Some companies, certain regions, some groups did not yet perceived economic recovery", acknowledged Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the national Bureau of statistics. In the provinces of South-East of the country, the most affected by the fall in exports, many private entrepreneurs so could enjoy the last few months or the generosity of the banks, especially reserved for public groups or campaigns to support consumer oriented companies focused on the domestic market. "For me, the situation is still as bad as last fall," lamented yesterday, Xiao Long, the pattern of a trading in sporting goods company based in Dongguan. "My suppliers are still uncertain." They live on the day the day waiting for foreign orders.

Risk of bubbles

Pointing this "imbalance", independent economists pushed Beijing to refine his recovery work so that they benefit all of the activity. "The risk is that, in its hunt for the 8 growth, the Government has too much on public investment and private residential investment for growth rather than encourage structural reforms that would the economy on a sustainable growth path," pointed yesterday Ben Simpfendorfer, Royal Bank of Scotland. Analysts are particularly concerned about the enormity of the influx of cash dropped by banks, which are likely to fuel speculative bubbles in real estate or the stock market and could, in the medium term push to increase volumes of doubtful. "Improving a trend does not mean that all problems are past", had himself acknowledged last week the Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao.